Glasgow v Connacht tips: take the visitors with points
We're backing Connacht +11 on the three-way handicap @2.00 at Betway. Ciaran Frawley's two-try debut helped them win in Treviso, while Glasgow conceded five tries and surrendered a seven-point lead against Ulster.
Glasgow Warriors v Connacht. Friday, 9 October 2026, 20:45 SAST. Scotstoun Stadium, Glasgow.
Key takeaways
- Connacht +11 is our half-unit selection.
- Frawley scored twice in the 22-19 win over Benetton.
- A Connacht defeat by exactly 11 loses in this three-way market.
Our selection
| Selection | Book | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connacht +11 Handicap - 3 Way | Betway | @2.00 | 0.5 unit |
Frawley gives Connacht an immediate return
Ciaran Frawley scored twice on his Connacht debut, including the winning try in the 77th minute at Benetton. Cian Prendergast and Sean O'Brien also crossed as the visitors collected four tries in a 22-19 win.
That was a useful response to the 29-15 opening defeat against the Stormers. Connacht won away despite converting only one of their four tries, leaving six points behind from the tee.
Four tries also gave them a way around Benetton's forward pressure. They didn't need a perfect scrum performance to win, which matters before another difficult away assignment.
The move from Treviso to Scotstoun is a step up. Still, Connacht's latest performance offers more encouragement than their opening result, particularly with Frawley contributing immediately rather than needing several games to settle.
| Team | Opening round | Latest result |
|---|---|---|
| Glasgow | Won 26-20 at Munster | Drew 33-33 with Ulster |
| Connacht | Lost 15-29 to Stormers | Won 22-19 at Benetton |
Glasgow let a winning position go
Glasgow trailed Ulster 26-14 early in the second half before scoring three tries in nine minutes. Kyle Rowe finished with two, while Josh McKay, Jamie Dobie and Sam Talakai also scored.
That burst came while Ulster were down to 13 players after yellow cards for Ben Carson and Ethan McIlroy. Glasgow took full advantage, but their own discipline then undid the recovery.
Rory Darge and Talakai were sent to the bin late on. Juarno Augustus scored against the depleted pack and Nathan Doak's conversion levelled the game at 33-33.
George Horne also hit the post with a late penalty. Glasgow had chances to finish the job, but the five tries conceded are a more useful warning for this handicap than the frustration over one missed kick.
The scrum is Connacht's biggest concern
Connacht's scrum improved in Treviso after the Stormers defeat, but Benetton still troubled them up front. Giacomo Bernasconi scored twice, including a driving-maul try, as the home forwards kept the contest close.
Glasgow have already won 26-20 at Munster this season. Their attacking return against Ulster also shows how quickly the score can move when opponents lose players or concede territory.
There is a recent warning from this ground, too. Glasgow beat Connacht 33-21 in the URC quarter-final on 29 May, a 12-point margin that would beat our chosen handicap.
Connacht left six conversion points behind in Treviso. Against a Glasgow side that scored five tries last weekend, another poor return from the tee would make the handicap much harder to defend.
Glasgow have yet to pull clear this season
Glasgow deserve favouritism, but their opening two margins are six points and zero. Connacht arrive with a four-try away win rather than needing to find their first attacking response of the season.
We prefer the visitors with 11 points to the outright upset. Frawley's contribution gives Connacht another scoring threat, while Glasgow's repeated infringements against Ulster make a large home margin less appealing.
Check the market label when comparing SA betting sites. This is the three-way handicap: Connacht must win, draw or lose by ten or fewer; an 11-point defeat loses rather than returning the stake.
Verdict
Connacht +11 @2.00 at Betway is our half-unit pick. Their scrum is the concern, but four tries in Treviso and Glasgow's costly indiscipline give the visitors enough scope to stay within ten.