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Spain v Croatia tips: Back three or more goals

Over 2.5 goals @1.46 at Betway is our selection. Spain scored three at Wembley, while five of Croatia's last six matches have produced at least three goals.

Sipho Nkosi
Published 27 Sep 2026 · Last updated 27 Sep 2026

UEFA Nations League · 29 September 2026 · 20:45 SAST · Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán Stadium, Seville

Key takeaways

  • Spain beat England 3-2 after trailing at half-time.
  • Croatia won 2-1 away to Czechia in their opener.
  • Croatia conceded in five of their last six matches.

Best bet

Betway SA odds: 27 September 2026, 10:20-10:35 SAST.

SelectionMarketOddsBookmaker
Over 2.5 goalsTotal goals@1.46Betway

View odds at Betway

Spain's substitutes changed the game

Lamine Yamal scored inside two minutes against England, but Spain went into half-time 2-1 down. Álex Baena and Mikel Oyarzabal then supplied the goals that secured a 3-2 victory.

Spain's response matters here because the goals did not depend on maintaining an early lead. They recovered after conceding twice and had scoring contributions beyond their starting attack.

Croatia's recent matches favour goals

Croatia followed their World Cup campaign with a 2-1 win in Prague. Their previous five matches included a 2-1 loss to Portugal, 2-1 wins over Ghana and Slovenia, a 4-2 defeat by England and a 1-0 win over Panama.

Five of those six matches produced over 2.5 goals. Croatia scored in all six but kept only one clean sheet, creating a convincing case for another match with contributions at both ends.

Spain can defend better than at Wembley

Spain's World Cup semi-final and final ended in 2-0 and 1-0 wins over France and Argentina. They are capable of reducing a game to very few chances, which is the main counterargument to the total.

Croatia's current sequence takes us towards goals nonetheless. They have continued scoring against strong opposition while conceding regularly, and Spain have just demonstrated several ways of finding the net against England.

Verdict

Take over 2.5 goals @1.46. Croatia's repeated scoring and concessions fit Spain's productive opening performance.

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