Ethiopia v Senegal tips: Oppose a goal rush
We're backing under 2.5 goals @2.07 at Betway. Ethiopia's last four matches have all stayed below that line, while Senegal's opener in Mozambique produced two goals despite the visitors creating the better chances.
Key takeaways
- Ethiopia's last four results were 0-1, 1-1, 1-0 and 1-0.
- Senegal drew 1-1 with Mozambique in Patrick Vieira's first game.
- Sudan needed an 86th-minute goal to beat Ethiopia.
Best bet
Betway SA odds: 27 September 2026, 10:20-10:35 SAST.
| Selection | Market | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | Total goals | @2.07 | Betway |
Ethiopia have kept the scores down
Mohamed Eisa's late goal settled Ethiopia's opening qualifier against Sudan. Before that, Ethiopia drew 1-1 and won 1-0 against Malawi, following a 1-0 victory over São Tomé and Príncipe.
Those opponents are weaker than Senegal, but the sequence shows why a low-scoring game is plausible. Ethiopia have conceded just twice across those four fixtures and have not scored more than once in any of them.
Senegal's chances did not become a big score
Nicolas Jackson put Senegal ahead in Maputo, only for Geny Catamo to equalise before half-time. Senegal had 14 shots to Mozambique's seven and three big chances, but left with a 1-1 draw.
That was Vieira's first match in charge. Senegal's attacking performance was better than the result, which is the principal threat to this under: a similar supply of chances with sharper finishing could produce a different scoreline.
Ethiopia's attack keeps us on the under
Senegal's World Cup games against Norway, Iraq and Belgium all produced at least five goals. Tuesday's opponent presents a different attacking problem, having scored only three times across its last four matches.
We expect Senegal to create more, but Ethiopia's limited recent scoring makes a two-sided goal exchange less likely. The @2.07 under is more appealing than Senegal's @1.22 win price.
Verdict
Take under 2.5 goals @2.07. Ethiopia's low-scoring sequence is the reason to oppose the total, even with Senegal expected to make most of the chances.