Guinea vs Eritrea Tips: Home Win in Conakry
Back Guinea to beat Eritrea. They have performed better against both shared Group D opponents, and Eritrea arrive after conceding five without reply against South Africa.
Guinea vs Eritrea. Thursday, 12 November 2026, 18:00 SAST. AFCON Qualifiers. 28 September Stadium, Conakry.
Match comparison
| Team | Recent performance | Key detail |
|---|---|---|
| Guinea | Beat Kenya 1-0 | Lost 2-1 to South Africa |
| Eritrea | Drew 1-1 with Kenya | Lost 5-0 to South Africa |
The Kenya matches favour Guinea
Guinea took three points from Kenya with a 1-0 win on 1 October. Eritrea drew 1-1 with the same opponent in their opener, which leaves Guinea two points ahead of Thursday's visitors.
That is the useful comparison in this group. Guinea have already beaten the side Eritrea could only draw with, and they now play at the 28 September Stadium in Conakry.
South Africa exposed the wider gap
Guinea's other qualifier ended in a 2-1 defeat to South Africa. Eritrea lost the corresponding match 5-0, leaving them with a goal difference of minus five after two games.
Guinea have not scored freely themselves: two goals across two qualifiers is a modest return. Their advantage is the smaller number of goals conceded against the group leaders, rather than evidence of a prolific attack.
Three points would protect second place
South Africa lead Group D on six points, Guinea have three, and Kenya and Eritrea have one each. A Guinea win would create a five-point gap over Eritrea before the next round.
Eritrea did beat Eswatini 2-0 and 2-1 in March. Their qualifying results since then have been much less convincing, particularly the South Africa defeat. Guinea's narrower matches against stronger opposition make the home win our selection.
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