Wales vs New Zealand Tips: All Blacks to Win
Back New Zealand to beat Wales. The All Blacks scored 43 against Scotland, while Wales needed to defend a seven-point lead against Japan after losing six line-outs.
Wales v New Zealand. Saturday, 14 November 2026, 16:10 SAST. Nations Championship. Principality Stadium, Cardiff.
Match comparison
| Team | Recent performance | Key detail |
|---|---|---|
| Wales | Beat Japan 28-21 | Six line-outs lost |
| New Zealand | Beat Scotland 43-21 | Won last year's meeting 52-26 |
Japan kept Wales working to the finish
Wales beat Japan 28-21 at the Principality Stadium after leading 21-14 at half-time. Josh Adams scored twice, with Archie Griffin and Louis Rees-Zammit also crossing.
Rees-Zammit's try was his first in eight internationals. Wales had useful contributions from both wings, but Kenta Fukuda's late try brought Japan back within seven and kept the result in doubt.
Six lost line-outs are a costly weakness
Wales lost six line-outs against Japan. That is the clearest concern before facing a New Zealand side that has just scored 43 points against Scotland.
The home attack scored four tries against Japan despite those losses of possession. Losing as much line-out ball against stronger opposition would give Wales much less room to rely on the same scoring return.
New Zealand bring the stronger recent result
The All Blacks beat Scotland 43-21. They also beat Wales 52-26 in the 2025 meeting, while Wales lost 43-0 to South Africa in July's Nations Championship programme.
The Japan win is a welcome improvement for Wales, but it came with a narrow finish and an obvious set-piece problem. New Zealand's scoring against Scotland makes them the selection in Cardiff, without needing to turn last year's margin into this week's target.
Follow the wider programme in our rugby tips. Our comparison of betting sites covers account terms and payment options.