Wales v Japan tips: Another close Cardiff contest
Wales are our narrow selection against Japan. Their six-try win over Fiji showed the attack can produce enough to win at this level, but the subsequent defeats in Argentina and South Africa exposed a much larger defensive problem. Last year's 24-23 Cardiff meeting is a better warning than any assumption of home comfort.
Wales v Japan. Saturday, 07 November 2026, 18:40 SAST. Nations Championship. Principality Stadium, Cardiff.
Match comparison
| Focus | Recent performance | Key detail |
|---|---|---|
| Wales in July | Beat Fiji 39-24 | Lost 35-21 to Argentina and 43-0 to South Africa |
| Japan in July | Beat Italy 27-10 | Lost 36-20 to Ireland and 42-15 to France |
| Previous Cardiff meeting | Wales won 24-23 | November 2025 |
Fiji offered a workable Welsh performance
Wales scored six tries in their 39-24 win over Fiji at Cardiff City Stadium in July. Although designated an away fixture, it gave Steve Tandy's side a successful performance on familiar ground.
The following games were very different. Argentina won 35-21 in San Juan before South Africa completed a 43-0 win in Durban, leaving Wales fifth in the northern standings.
Japan also enter November fifth in their table. Their 27-10 win over Italy was followed by defeats against Ireland and France, so both teams have beaten one of their opening opponents and struggled against the stronger pair.
The Cardiff rematch has little margin for error
Wales beat Japan 24-23 here last November. The single-point gap matters more to this matchup than the much larger defeats either side suffered against South Africa or France.
The Welsh July win over Fiji gives them a recent attacking performance to build around, but conceding 24 that day still left work for the defence. Japan's 27 against Italy shows they can supply enough points to make another close finish uncomfortable.
For Wales, the challenge is to reproduce the scoring contribution from the Fiji game without making Japan's attack equally productive. A side that has just completed a championship window with 102 points conceded cannot assume the home ground will solve that.
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The Nations Championship guide follows the Springboks through November. It includes their schedule and the route to the final weekend.
Costelow starts and Japan pick a debutant 10
Dewi Lake captains a Wales side with Sam Costelow at fly-half and Dan Edwards on the bench. Eddie James and Max Llewellyn form a new centre pairing, with Louis Rees-Zammit and Josh Adams on the wings and Blair Murray at full-back.
Rio Dyer, Tommy Reffell and Kieran Hardy are injured, and Taulupe Faletau is absent. Alex Mann, Jac Morgan and Aaron Wainwright form the back row, while Nicky Smith makes his first start of the championship at loosehead.
Japan hand uncapped fly-half Riku Kitahara his debut alongside co-captain Naoto Saito. Warner Dearns, the other co-captain, starts in the second row, and Jack Cornelsen is at number eight.
Kitahara's first Test is the selection that matters most here. A debutant fly-half in Cardiff gives Morgan and the Welsh back row a clear target at the breakdown and in the kicking exchange.
Wales need the Fiji version of their attack
Japan have their own defensive repair job after conceding 78 points to Ireland and France. Wales' six-try opening performance is the reason we give the hosts a narrow edge rather than dismissing their scoring prospects after the Durban shutout.
The last Cardiff result keeps the expectation modest. We favour Wales to win, but Japan have already shown that this fixture can come down to a single late scoring opportunity.