Portugal v Chile tips: Hosts' July finish gives them the edge
Portugal are our selection in Lisbon after following a one-point defeat by the USA with wins over Canada and Tonga. Chile also won twice in July, but ended with a 49-22 defeat by Georgia. Portugal's ability to stay close to the unbeaten Americans gives the hosts the stronger comparison.
Portugal v Chile. Saturday, 07 November 2026, 17:00 SAST. Nations Cup. Estádio do Restelo, Lisbon.
Match comparison
| Focus | Recent performance | Key detail |
|---|---|---|
| Portugal in July | Lost 30-29 to USA; beat Canada 38-14 | Beat Tonga 32-28 |
| Chile in July | Beat Romania 48-31 and Hong Kong China 38-17 | Lost 49-22 to Georgia |
| July records | Both won twice | Portugal lost by one; Chile lost by 27 |
Portugal built on the American near miss
Portugal lost 30-29 to the USA before beating Canada 38-14 and Tonga 32-28. The opening defeat was close enough to leave them within one point of an unbeaten window.
The American result carries additional weight because the USA also beat Zimbabwe and Spain. Portugal gave them their narrowest winning margin, then found enough against two different opponents to finish with victories.
The Canadian game was the most complete performance: 38 points scored and only 14 conceded. Against Tonga, Portugal had to work much harder, winning by four and gaining experience of protecting a smaller margin.
Manuel Cardoso Pinto scored five tries across the opening phase. Only Uruguay's Joaquin Myszka is ahead of him, giving Portugal a finishing contribution that has carried across more than one match.
Chile's final game changed the comparison
Chile beat Romania 48-31 and Hong Kong China 38-17 before losing 49-22 to Georgia. Their first two matches were productive, but the third ended with a much larger defensive problem.
Georgia went unbeaten through July, so the defeat came against the strongest side in the opposite pool. Even with that context, conceding 49 left Chile's attack unable to keep the game competitive.
Chile's 48 against Romania remains the clearest warning for Portugal. The visitors have already won a match despite conceding more than 30, and their attack should not be dismissed because of the final defeat.
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Portugal have answered more than one type of contest
The win over Canada was comfortable; the Tonga game was close. Portugal handled both, after already pushing the USA all the way in the opener.
Chile's first two wins came with larger margins, but their first serious setback became a 27-point defeat. That gives Portugal the better recent evidence of remaining competitive when the opposition is strong.
We favour the hosts. Chile's attack makes this a difficult assignment, but Portugal's two wins and narrow defeat leave fewer weaknesses to repair going into the November games.