Lions v Leinster tips: Leinster to cover at Ellis Park
Leinster -6.5 @1.80 at Betway is our pick. Their 41-man touring group includes 15 Ireland players, a much stronger basis for an away bet than a weakened squad sent south to absorb two difficult fixtures.
Key takeaways
- Our pick: Leinster -6.5 @1.80.
- Recent meeting: Leinster beat the Lions 31-7 in May.
- Kick-off: Saturday, 26 September 2026, 13:30 SAST, Ellis Park.
Lions v Leinster betting table
| Selection | Market | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster -6.5 | Handicap | @1.80 | Betway |
Betway SA odds: 22 September 2026, 22:47-22:54 SAST.
Leinster have brought their internationals
Andrew Porter is fit for the tour, with Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong, James Ryan, Josh van der Flier, Robbie Henshaw and Hugo Keenan also in the travelling group. Jamison Gibson-Park is the notable absentee.
The size and strength of that squad matter after Leinster took only one match point from their previous trip to face the Stormers and Bulls. This is not a tour built solely around fringe players.
Leinster beat the Lions 31-7 in May. Repeating that margin at Ellis Park would be a much bigger ask, but the recent result and the touring personnel support a win beyond six points.
The Lions are a different proposition at home
The Lions’ late-season home results included wins over Edinburgh 54-17, Dragons 42-26, Glasgow 54-12 and Connacht 33-21. That is the strongest argument against treating Leinster’s May win as a simple forecast.
Those four wins show how quickly the Lions can score at Ellis Park. Leinster will not cover this line merely by arriving with internationals in the squad.
The visitors also have mixed memories of Johannesburg: they won 39-36 in 2023 and lost 44-12 in 2024. Home conditions have already produced one close contest and one heavy Leinster defeat.
Verdict
Back Leinster -6.5 @1.80 at Betway. The Lions’ home scoring keeps this competitive, but Leinster’s strong touring squad and 31-7 May win give us enough reason to take the away handicap.