Toulouse vs Montpellier Top 14 Final Tips - 27 June 2026
Toulouse face Montpellier in the 2026 Top 14 Final at Stade de France on 27 June. Our picks, form guide, H2H stats and best odds from SA bookmakers.
- Toulouse host Montpellier in the 2026 Top 14 Final at the Stade de France on Saturday 27 June, with kickoff at 21:00 SAST.
- Toulouse arrive as heavy favourites after crushing Racing 92 71-17 in the semi-final, the largest winning margin in Top 14 semi-final history.
- Antoine Dupont's return from injury and Toulouse's superior league-season stats make the defending champions the standout selection across match result, handicap and totals markets.
Toulouse are the runaway favourites to claim a fourth consecutive Bouclier de Brennus on Saturday night, and we are backing them to win comfortably at the Stade de France. The defending champions thrashed Racing 92 71-17 in the semi-final, the biggest winning margin in Top 14 semi-final history, while Montpellier edged Stade Francais 25-15 in a far more cautious affair. With Antoine Dupont back in the saddle and a point-difference that dwarfs Montpellier's all season, the rouge et noir look too strong to bet against.
The Pick Card
Prices from Hollywoodbets, Betway and Easybet. 18+. T&Cs apply.
| Selection | Bookmaker | Odds | Stake | Operator CTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse to Win | Hollywoodbets | @1.60 | 2 Units | Bet here |
| Toulouse -10.5 Handicap | Betway | @1.85 | 2 Units | Bet here |
| Over 45.5 Total Points | Easybet | @1.80 | 2 Units | Bet here |
The Form Line
Toulouse finished the regular season at the top of the table with 86 points from 26 rounds, 4 clear of Montpellier, averaging a remarkable 37.7 points per game in attack. Their semi-final destruction of Racing 92, a 71-17 scoreline that set a new record for a Top 14 knockout stage, showed a team that is peaking at exactly the right moment. Antoine Dupont returned from a groin injury to score a try and produce an 86-metre, four-defenders-beaten masterclass, while Romain Ntamack dictated play throughout at fly-half.
Montpellier also impressed in the regular season, finishing second with 82 points and 17 wins from 26 matches. Their semi-final win over Stade Francais was professional rather than spectacular: fly-half Domingo Miotti kicked 17 points and fullback Tom Banks touched down early to give the Heraultais a lead they never relinquished. Coach Joan Caudullo's side are tactically disciplined and powerful at the scrum, which means this will not simply be a pushover, but the gap in attacking firepower is significant.
Head to Head
| Year | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Top 14, Round 20 | Toulouse 45-29 Montpellier |
| 2011 | Top 14 Final | Toulouse 15-10 Montpellier |
The only previous Top 14 final between these two clubs ended 15-10 to Toulouse in 2011. Their sole league meeting this season also went to Toulouse, a convincing 45-29 win at Stade Ernest-Wallon in March, with Ntamack pulling the strings throughout. Toulouse have won four of their last five encounters with Montpellier across all competitions, a head-to-head trend that reinforces the market's view of the holders as firm favourites.
Team News
The key concern for Toulouse is the fitness of fullback and chief goal-kicker Thomas Ramos, who missed the semi-final with a thigh injury. His status for the final is TBC as of the time of writing, though Romain Ntamack is fit and will start at fly-half regardless. Antoine Dupont starts at scrum-half after returning from a groin problem for the semi, and his involvement is the decisive factor in Toulouse's attacking threat. For Montpellier, Ali Price takes scrum-half duties following Cobus Reinach's departure to the Stormers at the end of last season, while Billy Vunipola anchors the back-row and Miotti carries the kicking burden at ten.
Verdict
Toulouse are too good to oppose outright, and the 45-29 league win over this same Montpellier side in March suggests the handicap line is very much in play if Dupont is on form. We also like the over on total points given Toulouse's extraordinary attacking output this season, and Montpellier's own ability to score, as evidenced by their 824 points in the regular campaign. Three angles, one clear direction: Toulouse at the Stade de France to lift the Bouclier de Brennus for a fourth time in a row.
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