Tunisia vs Netherlands World Cup 2026 Tips - 26 June

Tunisia vs Netherlands World Cup 2026 tips: Netherlands win, over 3.5 goals and Gakpo to score at Arrowhead Stadium on 26 June.

By Sipho Nkosi

Published 24 Jun 2026 · Last updated 24 Jun 2026

Tunisia head into this Group F finale at Arrowhead Stadium with nothing left to play for, eliminated after conceding nine goals across their first two games, while the Netherlands arrive unbeaten and in scorching form. Ronald Koeman's side need only a draw to top Group F, but we expect them to do far better than that against a side in complete disarray. We are backing the Dutch to win and the goals to flow freely in Kansas City.

The Pick Card

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The Form Line

Tunisia arrive in Kansas City as the Group F whipping boys, having conceded nine goals without reply across two games. A 5-1 battering by Sweden on matchday one was bad enough, but it prompted the federation to sack coach Sabri Lamouchi in a historic first, bringing in the experienced Hervé Renard. The Eagles of Carthage then fell 0-4 to Japan under Renard's watch, leaving them with a -8 goal difference and zero points going into their final game.

The Netherlands, by contrast, are hitting their stride at exactly the right moment. After a frustrating 2-2 opening draw with Japan, Koeman's side responded with a clinical 5-1 dismantling of Sweden in Houston. Cody Gakpo bagged a brace, Brian Brobbey scored twice as a starter, and Denzel Dumfries delivered two assists down the right flank. The Dutch have scored seven goals in two games and look every inch a team that could go deep in this tournament.

Head to Head

The two sides have met just three times in senior football, all friendlies, with the Netherlands winning one and drawing two. They have never faced each other at a World Cup. The most recent meeting, a 1-1 draw in February 2009, is hardly a reliable guide to current conditions, given how dramatically the gulf in quality has widened since then.

Team News

For the Netherlands, Ronald Koeman has a near-fully fit squad to choose from, with Frenkie de Jong expected to continue as the midfield metronome alongside Ryan Gravenberch and Tijjani Reijnders. Gakpo leads the attack after his brace against Sweden, with Memphis Depay, the Netherlands' all-time top scorer with 55 international goals, providing competition up front. No confirmed injuries are reported ahead of kick-off.

Tunisia's Hervé Renard is expected to name a similar side to the one that faced Japan, with captain Ellyes Skhiri anchoring the midfield and Hannibal Mejbri looking to add creativity from deeper positions. Mejbri, who plays his club football at Burnley, registered an assist in the opener against Sweden but has been unable to arrest his side's collapse. No specific injury absences have been confirmed, though the squad's morale is understood to be low after consecutive heavy defeats.

Verdict

There is very little to recommend backing Tunisia here. They have conceded nine in two games, changed their coach mid-tournament, and face a Netherlands side playing with real confidence and attacking fluency. We are landing on a Netherlands win as the anchor of our card, pairing it with over 3.5 goals given the Dutch's free-scoring form and Tunisia's leaky backline. Gakpo, who already has two goals to his name in this tournament and is clearly the focal point of the Dutch attack, looks a strong call to get on the scoresheet again.

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