Senegal vs Iraq World Cup 2026 Tips - 26 June
Senegal face Iraq in their must-win Group I finale at BMO Field, Toronto on 26 June. Our World Cup 2026 tips, picks and analysis inside.
- Senegal face Iraq in a must-win Group I finale at BMO Field, Toronto, kicking off at 21:00 SAST on Friday 26 June 2026.
- Both sides are on zero points after two defeats each, but Iraq have conceded seven goals and are without striker Aymen Hussein through injury.
- We are backing Senegal to win and over 2.5 goals, with Ismaila Sarr to trouble Iraq’s leaky defence once more.
Senegal's World Cup is on the line. Three points against an Iraq side that has conceded seven goals in two matches is the minimum requirement, and we think Pape Thiaw's Lions of Teranga will deliver. The quality gap between these squads is real, the motivation is genuine, and an Iraqi defence that folded against both Norway and France has given us no reason to expect a clean sheet here. We are backing Senegal to win in a match that goes over 2.5 goals.
The Pick Card
Prices from Hollywoodbets, Betway and Easybet. 18+. T&Cs apply.
| Selection | Bookmaker | Odds | Stake | Operator CTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal to Win | Hollywoodbets | @1.40 | 2 Units | Bet here |
| Over 2.5 Goals | Betway | @1.75 | 2 Units | Bet here |
| Ismaila Sarr Anytime Scorer | Easybet | @2.20 | 2 Units | Bet here |
The Form Line
Senegal's tournament has been a story of hard lessons against elite European opposition. A 3-1 defeat to France on Matchday 1 was followed by a spirited 3-2 loss to Norway, with Ismaila Sarr twice pulling Senegal back into the contest before Haaland's second killed it off. The Lions have scored three times across those two matches and Sadio Mane, Nicolas Jackson and Sarr form an attacking trident that will represent the biggest test Iraq have faced at this World Cup.
Iraq's return to the World Cup for the first time in 40 years has been a brutal reality check. A 4-1 opening loss to Norway was followed by a 3-0 defeat to France in Philadelphia, a match played in difficult weather conditions and suspended at halftime for nearly two hours. Graham Arnold's side has conceded seven goals, scored just once, and now faces the additional blow of losing striker Aymen Hussein to a groin injury sustained in that France clash.
Head to Head
| Year | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | FIFA World Cup Group I | First meeting |
Senegal and Iraq have never met in a competitive or friendly international fixture. There is no head-to-head record to draw on, so we are reading this one purely on current form and squad quality. On both counts, Senegal hold a clear edge.
Team News
For Senegal, goalkeeper Edouard Mendy started both group matches and has been a key figure behind a defence that, despite the results, has not been carved open without effort. Kalidou Koulibaly anchors the backline, while the front three of Mane, Jackson and Sarr are all expected to continue. Pape Thiaw has shown loyalty to his first-choice eleven and, with elimination on the line, there is little incentive to rotate.
Iraq's biggest concern is the fitness of Aymen Hussein, who limped off during the France match with a groin problem and is likely to miss the Senegal fixture. Ali Al-Hamadi and former Manchester United academy product Zidane Iqbal are the names to watch for Arnold's side, though the squad's first World Cup experience in four decades has been a steep learning curve across every line.
Verdict
This is Senegal's match to lose. They are the superior side on paper and in form, they have firepower across the front three, and they face a defence that has shipped seven goals in two games without Hussein to lead the line. We are comfortable backing the Lions of Teranga to win, and the goals line of 2.5 looks beatable given what Iraq's backline has shown in Toronto so far. Sarr's two strikes against Norway make her anytime scorer price the pick of the three.
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