Paraguay vs Australia World Cup 2026 Tips - 26 June
Paraguay vs Australia Group D decider at Levi's Stadium. Our best bets for this must-win clash, with Almiron suspended and the Socceroos needing just a draw.
- Paraguay and Australia clash in a Group D decider at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, kicking off at 04:00 SAST on Friday 26 June.
- Australia sit second in Group D and need only a draw to advance to the Round of 32, while Paraguay must win to guarantee progression.
- Paraguay will be without their most creative player, Miguel Almiron, who serves a one-match suspension, making Australia the value play on the double chance.
This Group D decider is the most consequential match of the round for South African fans backing the Socceroos, and we think the math and the news both point the same way. Australia need a single point to guarantee second place, Almiron is suspended, and Tony Popovic's organised Socceroos have already shown they can grind out a result. We are backing Australia on the double chance, under 2.5 goals, and a draw at half-time.
The Pick Card
Prices from Hollywoodbets, Betway and Easybet. 18+. T&Cs apply.
| Selection | Bookmaker | Odds | Stake | Operator CTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia Double Chance (Draw or Australia Win) | Hollywoodbets | @1.70 | 2 Units | Bet here |
| Under 2.5 Goals | Betway | @1.75 | 2 Units | Bet here |
| Half-Time Draw | Easybet | @2.10 | 2 Units | Bet here |
The Form Line
Paraguay opened the tournament with a 4-1 thumping at the hands of USA before grinding out a precious 1-0 win over Turkey in Matchday 2, Matias Galarza striking inside 64 seconds to claim the fastest goal of the tournament so far. The victory came at a cost, though: talisman Miguel Almiron collected a red card for covering his mouth during a confrontation with Turkey's Mert Muldur, making him the first player dismissed under FIFA's new anti-concealment rule. FIFA has confirmed a one-match ban, ruling him out of this fixture entirely.
Australia looked sharp in their opening 2-0 win over Turkey, with Nestory Irankunda and Connor Metcalfe scoring in either half at BC Place. The Socceroos then ran into a USA side on full throttle and went down 2-0, but Popovic's men were far from disgraced. That run of W-L mirrors Paraguay's L-W, and both sides arrive level on three points with goal difference separating them, the Socceroos holding a superior record at zero versus Paraguay's minus two.
Head to Head
| Year | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | International Friendly | Australia 1-0 Paraguay |
| 2006 | International Friendly | Australia 1-1 Paraguay |
Australia hold a clean record in the five verified meetings between these two sides, winning twice and drawing three times, with Paraguay yet to register a victory. The 2010 friendly at 1-0 was the last occasion they met, and this will be the first competitive fixture between the nations at a major tournament. Low-scoring and tightly contested is the pattern, with just six goals across all five matches, averaging 1.2 per game.
Team News
The headline news is Almiron's confirmed absence. The former Newcastle United midfielder was Paraguay's chief creative force and will be sorely missed against an organised backline. Antonio Sanabria leads the attack for Gustavo Alfaro's side, with Julio Enciso expected to carry extra creative responsibility in Almiron's place. For Australia, captain Mat Ryan is the established number one, though young Melbourne City keeper Patrick Beach started the Turkey game and impressed. Harry Souttar (Leicester City) anchors a three-man defence and is a constant aerial threat from set pieces. Midfield engine Jackson Irvine provides energy and industry for Popovic's side, and 20-year-old Nestory Irankunda offers the pace to punish Paraguay on the break. Mitchell Duke leads the forward line and brings physical presence that will test Paraguay's centre backs.
Verdict
Australia are in the driving seat here, holding a positive goal difference and only needing a point to seal second place in Group D. Without Almiron to unlock defences, Paraguay will struggle to create enough to win, and their record against the Socceroos offers little comfort. We expect a cagey, low-scoring affair that suits Australia perfectly, and the double chance covering a draw or an Australian win is our primary selection, backed by under 2.5 goals for a match that is unlikely to open up.
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