Japan vs Sweden World Cup 2026 Tips - 26 June
Japan vs Sweden Group F tips for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kickoff 01:00 SAST Friday 26 June at AT&T Stadium, Dallas. Best bets and match preview.
- Japan vs Sweden kicks off at 01:00 SAST on Friday 26 June at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, with both sides needing points to secure their Group F knockout stage positions.
- Japan enter on four points and are unbeaten in two matches, while Sweden must win after their 5-1 thrashing by the Netherlands exposed serious defensive weaknesses.
- We back Japan to win in a low-scoring contest, with Ayase Ueda the likeliest scorer against a Swedish defence that has conceded six goals in two games.
Japan arrive at the AT&T Stadium in Dallas level on points with the Netherlands and needing only a draw to guarantee a top-two finish in Group F. Sweden, bruised after a 5-1 hammering by the Dutch, must win to be certain of advancing and will throw everything at a Samurai Blue side hit hard by injuries to key attackers. We lean toward Japan holding their nerve and taking the three points, with a low-scoring, tightly contested match the most likely scenario.
The Pick Card
Prices from Hollywoodbets, Betway and Easybet. 18+. T&Cs apply.
| Selection | Bookmaker | Odds | Stake | Operator CTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan to Win (Match Result) | Hollywoodbets | @2.00 | 2 Units | Bet here |
| Under 2.5 Goals | Betway | @1.80 | 2 Units | Bet here |
| Ayase Ueda to Score Anytime | Easybet | @2.40 | 2 Units | Bet here |
The Form Line
Japan have been quietly impressive. They drew 2-2 with the Netherlands in a high-quality Group F opener, with Daichi Kamada popping up with an 89th-minute equaliser, before dismantling Tunisia 4-0 in a statement performance that included a brace from Feyenoord striker Ayase Ueda. That victory saw Japan move level with the Dutch on four points and set the tone: coach Hajime Moriyasu's side are compact, dangerous on the transition, and difficult to break down.
Sweden showed two very different faces in Group F. Graham Potter's men opened in style by hammering Tunisia 5-1 in Monterrey, with Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres both scoring and Yasin Ayari grabbing a brace. But the Dutch exposed their defensive frailty in ruthless fashion, putting five past them in Houston. Sweden concede at an alarming rate when put under sustained pressure, and Japan are well-equipped to exploit space on the counter.
Head to Head
| Year | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2002 | International Friendly (Tokyo) | Japan 1-1 Sweden |
| 1997 | King's Cup (Bangkok) | Sweden 1-0 Japan |
| 1996 | Carlsberg Cup (Hong Kong) | Sweden 1-1 Japan (pens 5-4) |
| 1995 | Umbro Cup (Nottingham) | Sweden 2-2 Japan |
These two nations have met just four times in senior international football, with Sweden unbeaten across all four encounters. Japan have never beaten Sweden, recording two draws and two losses. This is, however, the first meeting at a FIFA World Cup, and both squads have changed dramatically since the last encounter in 2002. The historical record is a footnote rather than a reliable guide.
Team News
Japan's injury situation is the talking point. Kaoru Mitoma was ruled out before the tournament with a hamstring injury sustained in May, and captain Wataru Endo retired from international duty after a foot injury worsened during final preparations. Takefusa Kubo suffered a left knee injury against the Netherlands in matchday one and sat out the Tunisia match entirely. His availability for this game is uncertain, which places even greater responsibility on Kamada, Ayase Ueda, and Ritsu Doan to carry the attacking threat. Sweden's Emil Forsberg was not selected in the final 26-man squad by coach Graham Potter, leaving Isak and Gyokeres as the clear focal points of the attack alongside Anthony Elanga. Dejan Kulusevski was also absent from Potter's squad due to injury.
Verdict
Japan only need a point to guarantee a top-two spot, but with four goals already scored in this tournament and Sweden's defensive vulnerabilities fresh in the memory, we back Moriyasu's side to go for the win. A tight, low-scoring affair suits Japan perfectly, and Ueda has the fitness and movement to punish a Swedish backline that has already leaked six goals in two matches. The under 2.5 goals line adds a sensible cushion to the card.
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