Kelly Criterion Calculator
Find the mathematically optimal stake size for value bets
How it works
Enter your estimated true probability and the bookmaker odds to find the optimal percentage of your bankroll to stake according to the Kelly Criterion.
Quick Example
Scenario: You estimate Sundowns have a 60% chance of winning, and the odds are 1.90.
Kelly formula: (bp - q) / b, where b = 0.90, p = 0.60, q = 0.40
Calculation: (0.90 x 0.60 - 0.40) / 0.90 = 15.6%
Kelly suggests staking 15.6% of your bankroll. Most experienced bettors use half-Kelly (7.8%) to reduce variance.
Ready to Place Your Bet?
Now that you have done the maths, find the best odds at a trusted South African bookmaker. We have tested and reviewed all 36 licensed SA operators.